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I don’t see bitcoin replacing the dollar because old money won’t adopt it because there are $330t in bonds and bitcoin is under $3T. And bonds will only increase.

But mechanistically it seems there is an AI bitcoin hybrid that already has begun bypassing the dollar. GPUs issuance by NVDAs federal reserve-like structure is a fed-like, bond-like approach, and GPUs compete to offer a yield indirectly. With GPUs, You can farm out high performance compute, or you can mine non bitcoin crypto and convert to bitcoin, and ASICs then compete for this yield. The yield should roughly normalize to the risk adjusted rate of return along the efficient frontier or create a kind of arbitrage-like opportunity.

The AI are bidding a premium for the bitcoin miners stuff to access low cost energy and efficient cooling and hyperclocking and their ability to consume massive energy. NVDA is “circular financing” but the more optimistic view is that it is mirroring the federal reserves structure and relationship to the primary dealers who buy and sell their bonds that they issue.

The Adam smith invisible hand here secures bitcoin indirectly to its energy cost. The other mechanism is that if those mining to sell become unprofitable they stop selling. If those mining to accumulate at a lower price become unprofitable they save the electricity and buy directly. This creates mechanistic pressure but only to the degree people agree it has value to accumulate. I don’t foresee abandonment, quite the opposite but many bitcoin bulls aren’t honest about the risks. Energy converts to bitcoin, bitcoin doesn’t convert back to energy.

The interesting thing is a GPU miner (to keep things simple) could borrow money to buy GPUs and fund its operations, eventually pay off the debt and then have the capacity to pay for their utilities in bitcoin or stablecoin after converting and use bitcoin or stablecoin to purchase additional GPUs and DeFi as well and theoretically never need to touch the dollar again. Or borrow in dollars and if the dollar is replaced by a new currency, they do business in that new currency. The dollar seems unnecessary.

Bigger picture. New finance is extrinsic buildout that eventually pays for itself and dominates new markets that didn’t previously exist. Old finance is intrinsic value, its bonds. It’s comparing companies to the bond value adjusted for risk. It’s loan values and risk adjusted return and collateral plus credit risk vs income. But technology has grown from 3% to 40% of the S&P and is disrupting that world through extrinsic value. Developing places for profit that didn’t exist before, often through revolutionary change or displacement. Think Uber disrupting taxis. Teslas disrupting luxury gas cars. Amazon going from the book store online to the everything store. The old world needs military to secure the dollar and banking systems and legal. The new world may one day create blockchain algorithmically secured laws and incentives and AI run banking, legal, insurance, etc. secured by AI military the moat for the banking function (dollar plus bonds) is eroding although this is forcing technological adoption as well which can grow its moat alongside AI/robotics/crypto. I forsee adoption as more likely than competition or disruption.

The biggest upside for bitcoin is the development of agentic commerce. Although stablecoin or another cryptocurrency could win here, the idea that people could create a new wallet and load it with whatever amount they trust AI to have like a debit card and have the Agents manage an existing Etsy or Shopify store or better yet spin up new ones and run a business, or better up spin up a swarm of startup businesses until total replacement of the labor market and analog economy with robots and AI… it suggests that the eventual saturation point of price for crypto is when you no longer could have a business turn $1000 into more than $1000. And that would then create a kind of floor because there is no value in acquiring bitcoin in terms of utility except to speculate on future growth at this point. Bitcoins intrinsic value is the value that an agentic economy can produce from bitcoin. Which could be not equal to disrupting and capturing the labor market but several multiples of that… ironically, only if the dollar survives.

And that is where things get tricky.

Who would lend money for 30 years at 4-5% if the most bullish futurists are right? If AGI unlocks ASI and the economy begins doubling monthly by the 2050s. It may eventually asymptote at whatever the laws of physics will allow but until then it keeps doubling. What if the economy has a super exponential component and keeps increasing at an increasing rate? So that the growth rate itself is compounding and accelerating at the rate it’s growing its growth? Interest rates are not designed to survive this paradigm. Which in turn means you cannot continue to mint currency. Which means deflationary collapse including for the value of bitcoin at that point from those prices.

So as bullish as agentic AI business swarms sounds, it can’t support infinite growth forever unless somehow there is a new paradigm or US converts to some kind of convertible bond where there is at least some translation to assets on the upside so that treasury bonds still have a market. Maybe “take a haircut to fund this thing or convert to a 100 year bond with equity option that gives you more value than your existing bondholders but lowers our payment and makes our budget survivable so interest costs don’t exceed the military budget and social security payments.” They can politically dress this up as not a “haircut” and as a path to have growth exceed the debt and the bondholders may even prefer the value from the equity conversion but the lack of real option forcing a kind of debt refinance to acquire assets that can eventually produce growth above the GDP rate and transition government to a decentralized model and off of the model where corruption is easy.

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